Our CTO, Tom Roderick PhD, published an article that explores how voter diversity and down-ballot races—local elections that don’t receive as much national attention—impact democracy and election strategies. While presidential races dominate public attention, local races, such as those for state and city offices, often provide voters with a wider array of choices, reflecting diverse political preferences. By analyzing Vermont's election data using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), the article illustrates how voting diversity can reveal political trends. A low HHI signifies voter preference spread across multiple parties, whereas a high HHI shows concentration around one or two.
The article notes that in places like Vermont, where local and presidential races show varying levels of concentration, voters may express enthusiasm for top-level races while remaining open to other parties for local positions. The observed pattern—where local races generally show more diverse preferences than presidential races—offers insights for election strategies. Political strategists could focus on down-ballot races to strengthen local influence, potentially winning more seats and enhancing democratic representation over time.
The original article can be found here.